How petrol price cycles work in Australia.

What's a price cycle?

A petrol price cycle is a repeating pattern where retail fuel prices in a city rise sharply over one or two days — sometimes by 20–30 cents per litre overnight — then slowly decline over the following weeks. The low point of the cycle is where you want to fill up. The high point is where the servo is profitable for the retailer. Most Australian drivers never see this pattern because the rises and falls happen independently of global oil prices.

Why does it happen?

The ACCC has investigated this for years. The short version: petrol retailers in concentrated markets coordinate price rises — legally — to restore margins after a period of undercutting. Independent evidence shows the rises are near-simultaneous across a city, then individual servos hold or slightly undercut each other on the way down. The net result is a sawtooth price chart. Every Australian capital except Darwin displays some version of it, though the length and regularity varies by city.

How to use it to save

The simplest strategy: don't fill up on the day prices spike. If you see your local station suddenly jump 20+ cents, wait two or three days. The price will begin its descent almost immediately. In cities with a weekly cycle like Perth, the pattern is even more predictable — prices typically hit their lowest point on Tuesdays before resetting. In Sydney and Melbourne, Refuelr's cycle tracker shows where the city currently sits so you can decide whether to fill up now or hold a few days for a cheaper window.

Ready?

See where your city sits in the cycle today.